Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts
Showing posts with label depression. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Which to fear most: atomic or debt bomb?

(Note: lots of justification, reasoning and leaping to conclusions here so I'll understand if you want to skip to the good part. Just scroll on down to where it says "Enough Backstory, what can YOU expect in the coming years?" for the shoot'em up, knock'em down and drag'em out part of this post.)

FLU23B
 Every organism from the lowly ameba to the smartest human does that which it PERCEIVES to be in its own best interest.
Desert Dave -- (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)

 Perception is reality at least insofar as we react to it
Anonymous -- (Quotation, with attribution, permitted and encouraged.)

If you agree with the above two statements you'll probably agree that in the future the greatest personal danger you and your family will face will more likely come from desperate fellow citizens in a depression rather than some nuts with nukes.

Nor will you be able to depend on direct action on your behalf from your friendly local, barely aware that you exist, government.

If the gas & lights are out and no water runs from the taps in your house does it matter to you if the cause is global thermonuclear war or depression brought on hyperinflation?

We've all seen that picture (taken during the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic) of the
From Desert Dave's TEOTWAWKI Survival Guide
German woman burning bundles of bills in a furnace because the heat output from the bills would be more than the heat output from the wood they would buy.

As conditions worsen people don't head for the hills, they adapt.

By 1923 the backs of million mark bills, which had been printed on one side only to save time and ink, were being used as note pads.

The White House recently announced the deficit for fiscal year 2009 alone was $1.4 trillion. (Update) The U.S. is making interest payments of $500 million a day. According to a U.S. National Debt Clock our national debt stands at somewhere over $13,875,295,120,352.

That's over thirteen trillion bucks folks ! While our politicians dither like a debt-a-holic sitting on a curb trying to decide which one of 23 credit cards to cut up foreign nations are coming to the conclusion that although the US Dollar may be the best looking horse in the glue factory of international currencies that ain't sayin' much.

These developments haven't gone unnoticed: China has nearly doubled it gold reserves in the past six years and India's Reserve Bank just bought 200 metric tons of gold as the country’s finance minister warned the economies of the US and Europe had "collapsed". Other Central banks and sovereign wealth funds are following suit.

But what does all that mean to you?

During our own Great Depression cops, firemen (sorry ladies it was all men back then) and thousands of city and state civil service workers were laid off or had their pay reduced in addition to the millions of non-governmental workers we read about in history books.

What most history books don't tell us is that many of those cops got by by taking bribes and in some cases outright thievery/thugery. Back then most Americans were farmers with at least the space and know-how to grow their own food. Will it be that easy the second time around?

Mexico has a similar civil service system to what existed in America during the Great Depression i.e. cops are paid very little and expected to get by on bribes.

In the Great Depression bribed cops looked the other way while booze was smuggled into the local speakeasy. Today armed Mexican military and police escort drug shipments to the U.S. Mexican border. So far the Mexican cops and police haven't crossed over the border with the drug mules. So far as we know.
However my conversations with a senior ICE agent and others indicate there's a lot going on along our southern border that isn't released to the news media. No, it won't be easy the second time around.

In 2010 alone over 3000 people (police, soldiers, men, women, children & infants) were killed in the drug cartel wars to control ciudad Juárez. Over 30,000 people have been killed in Mexican drug wars since 2006 and there is no indication the pace of either the killings or the drug smuggling is slowing down.

Enough Backstory, what can YOU expect in the coming years?

A depression will mean the governments (federal, state & local) will be able to collect less in taxes. Governments don't shrink willingly. They will be dragged kicking and screaming (fingernails leaving furrows in the fine marble floors of capitals and city halls) to fiscal responsibility i.e. spending only what they take in. This will have repercussions you may not have considered.

Fewer shiny fire engines and ambulances to respond to 911 calls and more crime as crooks realize there are fewer cops to respond to 911 calls, fewer courts to try them in if they get caught and less room in prisons (read early release) if they are convicted. If it gets bad enough one of the guys involved in your home invasion may turn out to be the cop who comes later to take a report.

No, I'm not some whacko nut job survivalist fanaticizing gloom & doom; that is what's happening now in Mexico and other South American countries. People are afraid to report extortion, home invasions, robberies and kidnappings to the authorities because the police are often taking bribes from (or among) the criminals committing the crimes.

Bottom Line


In the future you will have to take on more of your own personal security and home protection duties because as time goes on police and fire response will become less reliable.

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Saturday, October 31, 2009

Defining Terms: TEOTWAWKI and WTSHTF

Perhaps it would be helpful if we were to start off by defining our terms. This is what I mean when I use the acronyms TEOTWAWKI and WTSHTF.

TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It)
• Governments collapse: there is no help coming.

WTSHTF (When The $#!t Hits The Fan)
• Disaster which disables only local government and/or infrastructure i.e. help is on the way.
• National or international event (depression, pandemic, economic collapse à la Argentina in 2001) which cripples governments but does not destroy them i.e. help is slow & inadequate, but on the way.

TEOTWAWKI
I envision two likely TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) scenarios:

Slow onset TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) i.e. there's warning.
• An asteroid is detected weeks (days, hours) before it strikes Earth.
• A regional Thermonuclear War breaks out and spreads à la WWI.

Rapid onset TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) i.e. there's NO warning.
• An undetected asteroid strikes the Earth.
• Global Thermonuclear War breaks out à la December 7th, 1941.

WTSHTF
I envision two likely WTSHTF (When The $#!t Hits The Fan) scenarios:

Slow onset WTSHTF (When The $#!t Hits The Fan) i.e. there's warning.
• A hurricane is headed for the coast.
• Our inept, greedy, self-serving politicians manage to devalue the dollar faster than expected.

Rapid onset WTSHTF (When The $#!t Hits The Fan) i.e. there's NO warning.
• An earthquake (à la 1994 Northridge earthquake)
• Terrorists set off a dirty bomb.

While it is true that an earthquake in LA would have ramifications as far away as NYC (mainly Wall St.) for most of the country it would be something to watch on FOXNews rather than something requiring the tearing of sheets into bandages.

If you are in Enid Oklahoma it really doesn't physically affect you all that much if NYC is a smoking hole in the ground and vica versa. However there will be consequences as government adjusts to the new reality caused by the smoking hole and the new reality that caused that smoking hole.

To me that's the main difference between WTSHTF and TEOTWAWKI; with WTSHTF law enforcement, utilities and the social order have been interrupted, but will soon be reasserted i.e. help, and return to normalcy, is on the way. With TEOTWAWKI there is no government reaction because there is no longer a functioning government to react. help is NOT on the way.

(Before TEOTWAWKI)
When seconds mean life or death the police are only minutes away.-- John Connor

(After TEOTWAWKI)
When seconds mean life or death you are the police.
-- Desert Dave

To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me
Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email address or any other specific information for privacy reasons.