If our future holds more of the same, only worse, the question becomes not how to fend off the hungry hordes attacking our bunker in the bush after TEOTWAWKI, but how to survive in our bungalow in the burbs on an average day.
In his book and on his blog FerFAL makes a convincing argument that increasing taxes and decreasing value of currency combined with crime and corruption will more likely result in a death spiral for our way of life than a dramatic revolution or civil war.
The more I study the problems that confront us, as a people and as a nation, the more convinced I become that FerFAL is right and those self proclaimed survival gurus predicting imminent internecine armed struggle are living in a fantasy world. Mutiny, it seems to me, just isn't in the cards.
So let's get real with our preparations. Buying a "ranch" in a "Survival Community"?
Eh, I'll pass!
Stocking up on food?
You bet!
A few gold coins and a lot of pre-1965 US silver dimes & quarters?
Of course!
Guns & Ammo?
You Betcha!
But what about the more mundane aspects of survival in devolving economy?
Got soap?
Nonperishable supplies can be stockpiled in large but reasonable amounts so that in times of chaos A) you don't have to endanger yourself going out to get them and B) you don't have to do without them. Also, not having to spend whatever money you have on hand at the moment on everyday essentials gives you other options for the deployment of that resource that could pay dividends as you adapt to the ever changing situation.
If you're a member of Costco, Sam's Club or one of the other big box stores that offer lower prices by selling in bulk you're already doubling up most of your purchases by virtue of the sizes available. Instead of the petite bottle of dishwashing liquid you're offered the jumbo size, often two of them taped together.
It makes sense to buy a 24 can case of the Campbell's soup you enjoy rather than a few cans at a time at the local supermarket. But if the grocery has a super sale don't hesitate to clear their shelves and load up yours.
TP or not TP that is the (30 roll) question, whether it is nobler in the mind to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune (with old magazine pages) or take arms against a sea of troubles and by opposing end them with 180 or so rolls in the closet?
It may not seem like much of a survival strategy; a pantry full of food and dishwashing liquid, a laundry room with an extra extra-large box of laundry detergent and a hall closet bulging with TP and hand soap; but the time and money you save by not having to go out searching for such things is time and money you'll have available to deploy in other areas.
Before you pooh-pooh the savings to be had consider that after an economic collapse the reemerging reality will be full of constantly moving parts that won't always provide necessities at prices you can afford or maybe not at any price.
Little Things Mean a Lot
Don't discount medicine and health aids. An infected splinter can kill you just as dead as a bullet. It just takes longer and is more painful. A decayed tooth can kill you too.
Eye drops, aspirin, Mole Skin (to prevent/treat blisters), New Skin (for cuts & splinters), toothpaste and all those over the counter pills you routinely take for this that and the other ailment may not be available (or may be prohibitively expensive) so you have to ask yourself: "If I buy an extra bottle of pills and have to throw it away in a few years do I count it as a loss or insurance?"
Oh sure (if you're lucky) eventually you'll run out of these things, but hopefully by then the emergency will have stabilized. If not, you'll be no worse off then the guy ahead of you in line as you try to buy a Big Mac with one of the new $1,000,000 dollar bills.
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Showing posts with label Hyper Inflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hyper Inflation. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Saturday, February 6, 2010
How much is enough?
If the world went to hell in a hand basket tomorrow would you have enough?
Enough what?
The answer is obvious: enough to get you through whatever it is. Whatever that is.
It matters not whether the "whatever" is depression, hyper inflation or any of the dozen or so long term disasters that could impact your life, when you get right down to it enough means enough to eat. Period.
Would you rather be hungry in a palace or satiated in a hovel? I'm guessing you'd go for the hamburger on a tin plate over the airburger on a gold plate.
Since air is free and abundant and water is nearly so when we talk about "enough" we're ultimately talking about food and the things that it takes to get food. For most of us that means money.
We give the grocer money and the grocer gives us food. But what if the value of the money decreased? Would the grocer still be willing to hand over the same amount of food for the same amount of money? Probably not. It's called inflation.
When it gets really out of control we call it hyper inflation and think of the Weimar Republic in 1923 Germany and fifty million Mark postage stamps but there are other examples of hyper inflation.
So how do we protect ourselves from hyper inflation? Gold? Silver? Foreign currencies? Food? True, we can get the latter by holding the former but there are translation problems. A gold coin may buy more groceries than you want but do you want to accept your change in a currency that's decreasing in value so quickly that the grocery store clerk who hands you your change demands to be paid twice a day so as to be able to afford to buy food on his lunch break before it doubles in price at quitting time?
Silver, particularly U.S. pre 1965 Junk silver dimes and quarters would come in handy at the grocery store.
If you look at recent hyper inflation in other countries you'll see currency black markets springing up overnight so having the right currency could be helpful.
The American dollar has been the currency of last resort for decades, but what do you resort to if the US dollar goes hyper? Swiss francs (CHF), New Zealand dollars ($) (NZD), Canadian dollars ($) (CAD), Australian dollars ($) (AUD) or maybe you'd like to bet on the Chinese Renminbi (¥) (CNY)?
Long term the Renminbi is probably the one to bet on, but let your grandchildren worry about that you're worried about being hungry tomorrow.
If the American dollar catches hyper pneumonia the rest of the world will catch an economic cold. You won't be able to escape hard times, but you can alleviate them by having some savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank.
But why not eliminate the middle man? Most of the canned food in your grocery store now bears readable expiration dates. Join Costco or one of the other big box store clubs (I receive my membership fees and more back from Costco every year by using my True Earnings card from Costco and American Express) and save by buying canned goods (among other things) by the case.
Buy canned foods you normally eat. Store them in a cool dry place; a closet or your garage will do. Put the new stuff on the back of the shelves and eat from the front of the shelves always eating the oldest first.
But do you want the family fortune in cans of Campbell soup in the hall closet? Probably not, but a years supply of food would go a long way towards helping your family through a bout of hyperinflation. Having your savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank would enable you to take care of your other financial obligations
And, of course, you'll want to have a bag or two of pre 1965 "junk" silver coins.
How much of any of the above is "enough"? Well, as Yogi Berra is said to have said "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future." Exact amounts would depend on how long the hyper inflation lasted, but having preparations in place should help ease you through whatever comes.
----------
HCF writes:
Zimbabwe has recently experienced the worst inflation in history. They survived. People are clever and find ways around things.
Zimbabwe may yet beat inflation.
Instead of change, some merchants resorted to hard candy as change. The ultimate solution for Zimbabwe was to disown its own currency and make American dollars, South African Rand, and Botswana Pula legal tender in Zimbabwe.
If it happened in the US, I'd expect Canadian dollars and Mexican pesos to be used if they had stable values. You do occasionally run across Canadian change in circulation in the US anyway.
In the longer term, especially if there was no viable alternative, expect precious medal coins to become the de facto medium of exchange. This is where silver coins are more useful than gold. Gold is great if you're trying to sneak out of the country. Silver is great if you want to buy staples in the market or a tank of gas.
Good point, HCF, I'm expecting pretty much the same thing (alternative currency wise) if hyperinflation hits the US dollar. If anyone were to ask me I'd say put your faith in precious metal coins (particularly US pre 1965 silver coins) and Canadian dollars.
----------
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email and any other specific information for privacy purposes.
Enough what?
The answer is obvious: enough to get you through whatever it is. Whatever that is.
It matters not whether the "whatever" is depression, hyper inflation or any of the dozen or so long term disasters that could impact your life, when you get right down to it enough means enough to eat. Period.
Would you rather be hungry in a palace or satiated in a hovel? I'm guessing you'd go for the hamburger on a tin plate over the airburger on a gold plate.
Since air is free and abundant and water is nearly so when we talk about "enough" we're ultimately talking about food and the things that it takes to get food. For most of us that means money.
We give the grocer money and the grocer gives us food. But what if the value of the money decreased? Would the grocer still be willing to hand over the same amount of food for the same amount of money? Probably not. It's called inflation.
When it gets really out of control we call it hyper inflation and think of the Weimar Republic in 1923 Germany and fifty million Mark postage stamps but there are other examples of hyper inflation.
So how do we protect ourselves from hyper inflation? Gold? Silver? Foreign currencies? Food? True, we can get the latter by holding the former but there are translation problems. A gold coin may buy more groceries than you want but do you want to accept your change in a currency that's decreasing in value so quickly that the grocery store clerk who hands you your change demands to be paid twice a day so as to be able to afford to buy food on his lunch break before it doubles in price at quitting time?
Silver, particularly U.S. pre 1965 Junk silver dimes and quarters would come in handy at the grocery store.
If you look at recent hyper inflation in other countries you'll see currency black markets springing up overnight so having the right currency could be helpful.
The American dollar has been the currency of last resort for decades, but what do you resort to if the US dollar goes hyper? Swiss francs (CHF), New Zealand dollars ($) (NZD), Canadian dollars ($) (CAD), Australian dollars ($) (AUD) or maybe you'd like to bet on the Chinese Renminbi (¥) (CNY)?
Long term the Renminbi is probably the one to bet on, but let your grandchildren worry about that you're worried about being hungry tomorrow.
If the American dollar catches hyper pneumonia the rest of the world will catch an economic cold. You won't be able to escape hard times, but you can alleviate them by having some savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank.
But why not eliminate the middle man? Most of the canned food in your grocery store now bears readable expiration dates. Join Costco or one of the other big box store clubs (I receive my membership fees and more back from Costco every year by using my True Earnings card from Costco and American Express) and save by buying canned goods (among other things) by the case.
Buy canned foods you normally eat. Store them in a cool dry place; a closet or your garage will do. Put the new stuff on the back of the shelves and eat from the front of the shelves always eating the oldest first.
But do you want the family fortune in cans of Campbell soup in the hall closet? Probably not, but a years supply of food would go a long way towards helping your family through a bout of hyperinflation. Having your savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank would enable you to take care of your other financial obligations
And, of course, you'll want to have a bag or two of pre 1965 "junk" silver coins.
How much of any of the above is "enough"? Well, as Yogi Berra is said to have said "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future." Exact amounts would depend on how long the hyper inflation lasted, but having preparations in place should help ease you through whatever comes.
----------
HCF writes:
Zimbabwe has recently experienced the worst inflation in history. They survived. People are clever and find ways around things.
Zimbabwe may yet beat inflation.
Instead of change, some merchants resorted to hard candy as change. The ultimate solution for Zimbabwe was to disown its own currency and make American dollars, South African Rand, and Botswana Pula legal tender in Zimbabwe.
If it happened in the US, I'd expect Canadian dollars and Mexican pesos to be used if they had stable values. You do occasionally run across Canadian change in circulation in the US anyway.
In the longer term, especially if there was no viable alternative, expect precious medal coins to become the de facto medium of exchange. This is where silver coins are more useful than gold. Gold is great if you're trying to sneak out of the country. Silver is great if you want to buy staples in the market or a tank of gas.
Good point, HCF, I'm expecting pretty much the same thing (alternative currency wise) if hyperinflation hits the US dollar. If anyone were to ask me I'd say put your faith in precious metal coins (particularly US pre 1965 silver coins) and Canadian dollars.
----------
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email and any other specific information for privacy purposes.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
How much is enough?
If the world went to hell in a hand basket tomorrow would you have enough?
Enough what?
The answer is obvious: enough to get you through whatever it is. Whatever that is.
It matters not whether the "whatever" is depression, hyper inflation or any of the dozen or so long term disasters that could impact your life, when you get right down to it enough means enough to eat. Period.
Would you rather be hungry in a palace or satiated in a hovel? I'm guessing you'd go for the hamburger on a tin plate over the airburger on a gold plate.
So when we talk about "enough" we're ultimately talking about food and the things that it takes to get food. For most of us that means money.
We give the grocer money and the grocer gives us food. But what if the value of the money decreased? Would the grocer still be willing to hand over the same amount of food for the same amount of money? Probably not. It's called inflation.
When it gets really out of control we call it hyper inflation and think of the Weimar Republic in 1923 Germany and fifty million Mark postage stamps but there are other examples of hyper inflation.
So how do we protect ourselves from hyper inflation? Gold? Silver? Foreign currencies? Food? True, we can get the latter by holding the former but there are translation problems. A gold coin may buy more groceries than you want but do you want to accept your change in a currency that's decreasing in value so quickly that the grocery store clerk who hands you your change demands to be paid twice a day so as to be able to afford to buy food on his lunch break before it doubles in price at quitting time?
Silver, particularly U.S. pre 1965 Junk silver dimes and quarters would come in handy at the grocery store.
If you look at recent hyper inflation in other countries you'll see currency black markets springing up overnight so having the right currency could be helpful.
The American dollar has been the currency of last resort for decades, but what to you resort to if it goes hyper? Swiss francs (CHF), New Zealand dollars ($) (NZD), Canadian dollars ($) (CAD), Australian dollars ($) (AUD) or maybe you'd like to bet on the Chinese Renminbi (¥) (CNY)?
Long term the Renminbi is probably the one to bet on, but let your grandchildren worry about that you're worried about being hungry tomorrow.
If the American dollar catches hyper pneumonia the rest of the world will catch an economic cold. You won't be able to escape hard times, but you can alleviate them by having some savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank.
But why not eliminate the middle man? Most of the canned food in your grocery store now bears readable expiration dates. Join Costco or one of the other big box store clubs (I receive my membership fees and more back from Costco every year by using my True Earnings card from Costco and American Express) and save by buying canned goods (among other things) by the case.
Buy canned foods you normally eat. Store them in a cool dry place; a closet or your garage will do. Put the new stuff on the back of the shelves and eat from the front of the shelves always eating the oldest first.
But do you want the family fortune in cans of Campbell soup in the hall closet? Probably not, but a years supply of food would go a long way towards helping your family through a bout of hyper inflation. Having your savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank would enable you to take care of your other financial obligations
And, of course, you'll want to have a bag or two of pre 1965 "junk" silver.
How much of any of the above is "enough"? Well, as Yogi Berra is said to have said "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future." Exact amounts would depend on how long the hyper inflation lasted, but having preparations in place should help ease you through whatever comes.
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email address and any other specific information for privacy purposes.
Enough what?
The answer is obvious: enough to get you through whatever it is. Whatever that is.
It matters not whether the "whatever" is depression, hyper inflation or any of the dozen or so long term disasters that could impact your life, when you get right down to it enough means enough to eat. Period.
Would you rather be hungry in a palace or satiated in a hovel? I'm guessing you'd go for the hamburger on a tin plate over the airburger on a gold plate.
So when we talk about "enough" we're ultimately talking about food and the things that it takes to get food. For most of us that means money.
We give the grocer money and the grocer gives us food. But what if the value of the money decreased? Would the grocer still be willing to hand over the same amount of food for the same amount of money? Probably not. It's called inflation.
When it gets really out of control we call it hyper inflation and think of the Weimar Republic in 1923 Germany and fifty million Mark postage stamps but there are other examples of hyper inflation.
So how do we protect ourselves from hyper inflation? Gold? Silver? Foreign currencies? Food? True, we can get the latter by holding the former but there are translation problems. A gold coin may buy more groceries than you want but do you want to accept your change in a currency that's decreasing in value so quickly that the grocery store clerk who hands you your change demands to be paid twice a day so as to be able to afford to buy food on his lunch break before it doubles in price at quitting time?
Silver, particularly U.S. pre 1965 Junk silver dimes and quarters would come in handy at the grocery store.
If you look at recent hyper inflation in other countries you'll see currency black markets springing up overnight so having the right currency could be helpful.
The American dollar has been the currency of last resort for decades, but what to you resort to if it goes hyper? Swiss francs (CHF), New Zealand dollars ($) (NZD), Canadian dollars ($) (CAD), Australian dollars ($) (AUD) or maybe you'd like to bet on the Chinese Renminbi (¥) (CNY)?
Long term the Renminbi is probably the one to bet on, but let your grandchildren worry about that you're worried about being hungry tomorrow.
If the American dollar catches hyper pneumonia the rest of the world will catch an economic cold. You won't be able to escape hard times, but you can alleviate them by having some savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank.
But why not eliminate the middle man? Most of the canned food in your grocery store now bears readable expiration dates. Join Costco or one of the other big box store clubs (I receive my membership fees and more back from Costco every year by using my True Earnings card from Costco and American Express) and save by buying canned goods (among other things) by the case.
Buy canned foods you normally eat. Store them in a cool dry place; a closet or your garage will do. Put the new stuff on the back of the shelves and eat from the front of the shelves always eating the oldest first.
But do you want the family fortune in cans of Campbell soup in the hall closet? Probably not, but a years supply of food would go a long way towards helping your family through a bout of hyper inflation. Having your savings in a foreign currency in a foreign bank would enable you to take care of your other financial obligations
And, of course, you'll want to have a bag or two of pre 1965 "junk" silver.
How much of any of the above is "enough"? Well, as Yogi Berra is said to have said "Prediction is difficult, particularly about the future." Exact amounts would depend on how long the hyper inflation lasted, but having preparations in place should help ease you through whatever comes.
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email address and any other specific information for privacy purposes.
Saturday, December 19, 2009
The Most Likely Scenario
What if everything goes to Hell in a hand basket, but the basket remains (more or less) intact?
Isn't that pretty much what happened with the Weimar Republic? Sure the whole affair was pretty much TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) for the German people, but the fabric that held their lives together held (with a few major rips and tears) until another government took over. People had jobs, the trains and trolleys ran and government services staggered along. In other words people coped.
When we look we see pretty much the same thing happening time and again. Major disruptions major changes, but the majority of the population doesn't flee their bungalows in the burbs to go live in a bunker in the bush.
So why is it that we Americans feel an economic collapse would inevitably lead to riots and burning cities with the majority of the population fleeing to the countryside?
I'd like to postulate that it ain't a'gunn'a happen!
I suspect if the U.S. dollar's value continues to plummet people will adapt to the new situations as they occur. As long as the water is on people will want to sleep in their own beds at night even if they have to pile on the blankets to keep warm or eat a meal, cooked on a hibachi, by candlelight. As long as they can flush the toilets they'll stay.
Think of the Great Depression not Mad Max.
I'm going to slant future columns toward the supposition that people pretty much remain in their homes with diminished governmental services.
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email address or any other specific information for privacy purposes.
Isn't that pretty much what happened with the Weimar Republic? Sure the whole affair was pretty much TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) for the German people, but the fabric that held their lives together held (with a few major rips and tears) until another government took over. People had jobs, the trains and trolleys ran and government services staggered along. In other words people coped.
When we look we see pretty much the same thing happening time and again. Major disruptions major changes, but the majority of the population doesn't flee their bungalows in the burbs to go live in a bunker in the bush.
So why is it that we Americans feel an economic collapse would inevitably lead to riots and burning cities with the majority of the population fleeing to the countryside?
I'd like to postulate that it ain't a'gunn'a happen!
I suspect if the U.S. dollar's value continues to plummet people will adapt to the new situations as they occur. As long as the water is on people will want to sleep in their own beds at night even if they have to pile on the blankets to keep warm or eat a meal, cooked on a hibachi, by candlelight. As long as they can flush the toilets they'll stay.
Think of the Great Depression not Mad Max.
I'm going to slant future columns toward the supposition that people pretty much remain in their homes with diminished governmental services.
To Comment on this article
E-Mail Me Unless you specifically ask me not to, I'll post your reply here in the blog so everyone can read it. Of course I'll remove your last name, email address or any other specific information for privacy purposes.
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